← Grand Archive - Constructed - Storechamps
Water FractalTier 2
at Grand Archive - Constructed - Storechamps
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-6-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.7%
avg ELO -1.6 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1194
· median 1194
· range 1164–1223
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1164
Q1 1240
Q3 1462
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.7% | +25.1 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
